i saw today that the total CDS market (credit default swaps) is estimated at between $62 trillion and $90 trillion. Yes, that’s right, trillion. Credit default swaps hedge against default risk, but have been used to speculate on the ability of companies to repay debt. Interestingly the “price” of a CDS on the US government is now at 26 basis points, meaning that a CDS on $10m government debt costs $26k. There is even talk of rating agencies downgrading the US government itself.
what does all this mean? well it’s anyone’s guess. the GDP of the largest economy in the world, the US, is less than $14 trillion, so $90 trillion is a pretty big number. it’s like we’ve had the earthquake, suffered its effects, just about come to terms with it; but are about to be hit by the resulting tsunami. After it hits (i give it weeks rather than months), we’ll breath again, only to be hit by the returning wave. it’s not going to be pretty.
